Volar plating versus nonoperative treatment for senile comminuted fractures of distal radius / 中华创伤骨科杂志

Objective To compare volar plating and nonoperative treatment for senile comminuted fractures of the distal radius. Methods From October 2012 to June 2015, 46 senile comminuted fractures of the distal radius ( AO types B and C ) were treated surgically or conservatively. Twenty old patients were managed by open reduction and fixation with a volar locked plate. They were 7 men and 13 women, with an average age of 67. 9 ± 10. 7 years, including 7 cases of AO type 23-B and 13 cases of AO type 23-C. Twenty-six patients were managed with closed reduction and plaster cast. They were 8 men and 18 women, with an average age of 66. 2 ± 11. 5 years, including 10 cases of AO type 23-B and 16 cases of AO type 23-C. The 2 groups were compared in terms of follow-up time, union time and wrist functional scores and complica-tions. Results There was no significant difference between the 2 groups in follow-up time ( P > 0. 05 ) . Fractures in the 2 groups all united about 11 weeks after surgery. According to Dienst scoring for reduction, the volar plating group had 13 excellent cases, 4 good ones, 2 fair ones and one poor case, with an excellent to good rate of 85. 0％ while the nonoperative group had 5 excellent cases, 10 good ones, 5 fair ones and 6 poor ones, with an excellent to good rate of 57. 7％. A significant difference was shown between the 2 groups ( P <0. 05 ) . At final follow-ups, the volar plating group had significantly lower Gartland & Werley wrist functional score ( 2. 16 ± 1. 82 ) and complication rate ( 30. 0％, 6/20 ) than the nonoperative group [ 6. 62 ± 3. 78 and 53. 8％( 14/26 ) , respectively ] ( P <0. 05 ) . Conclusion In treatment of senile comminuted fractures of the distal radius, volar locked plating may lead to better functional recovery and fewer complications than nonoper-ative management. However, one should take full account of the physical condition and preference of the patient when surgery is chosen.

Early warning on measles through the neural networks / 中华流行病学杂志

To discuss the effects on early warning of measles, using the neural networks.Based on the available data through monthly and weekly reports on measles from January 1986 to August 2006 in Wuhan city. The modal was developed using the neural networks to predict and analyze the prevalence and incidence of measles. When the dynamic time series modal was established with back propagation(BP) networks consisting of two layers, if p was assigned as 9, the convergence speed was acceptable and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.85. It was more acceptable for monthly forecasting the specific value, but better for weekly forecasting the classification under probabilistic neural networks (PNN). When data was big enough to serve the purpose, it seemed more feasible for early warning using the two-layer BP networks. However, when data was not enough, then PNN could be used for the purpose of prediction. This method seemed feasible to be used in the system for early warning.

An assessment on the effectiveness of condom use in reducing the incidence of chlamydia through mathematical modelling / 中华流行病学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To determine the relationship between the rate of condom use and incidence of Chlamydia amongst commercial sex worker, using a mathematical model.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Assuming that p(%) is the rate of condom use by female sex workers, and r(%) is the incidence of Chlamydia. If the use of condom increases by delta p, then the incidence of Chlamydia will decrease by delta r. k is the relative rate of change. Then, the mathematical model established becomes dr/dp = -kr.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The solution of the differential equation is r (p) = r (P0) exp [-k (p - p0)]. Using the surveillance data gathered from 100% Condom Use Program in Wuhan City, the k value is calculated to be 4.36. If k indicates the contribution coefficient of reducing Chlamydia after condom use, when the rate of condom use increases by 16%, then the incidence of Chlamydia will decrease by 50%. The average difference between the actual incidence and the incidence calculated from the mathematical model is only 6.2%. This result demonstrates a good fit. The predicted result of using this mathematical model shows that at the time of lower levels of condom use, a small increment on the rate of condom use would considerably reduce the infection rate of Chlamydia.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>When k remains constant, this mathematical model reflects the qualitative relationship between the rate of condom use and the incidence of Chlamydia.</p>